Research & Analysis
Intel
Research-backed analysis for PE, family offices, and corporate strategy teams. No paywalls, no fluff.
Special Report
Alert Analysis
Pakistan Wedding Bombing Exposes TTP Cross-Border Strategy
January 2026Seven killed in suicide attack on peace committee members. Afghan Taliban sanctuary enables escalating violence against Pakistani state proxies.
"Terrorists" or "Massacre Victims": How Both Sides Are Exploiting the Cuba Speedboat Shootout
February 2026A small-scale exile operation became a propaganda tool for two governments with very different agendas.
US-Israel Strike Coordination on Iran: Who Decides, What Happens Next
February 2026Military preparation is genuine on both sides, but different political calendars, redlines, and triggers mean the path to action is not unified.
After El Mencho: CJNG Retaliation Spreads Across Mexico
February 2026The killing of the world's most wanted drug lord has triggered coordinated violence in 20 states, shutting down tourism corridors, disrupting supply chains, and raising succession questions that could reshape Mexico's security environment for years.
Takaichi Landslide Reshapes Indo-Pacific Security Architecture
February 2026Japan's first female PM secures supermajority, accelerating defense buildup and confrontation with China
Thailand's Conservative Landslide: Democracy Movement Crushed at Ballot Box
February 2026Bhumjaithai Party wins 191 seats as progressive opposition collapses. Nationalism and border conflict reshape political landscape.
Jimmy Lai's 20-Year Sentence Signals Hong Kong's Final Break With Legal Independence
February 2026Media tycoon receives harshest national security law sentence yet. British citizen's conviction draws UK-US condemnation as one country, two systems framework formally ends.
Mexico Tariff Wall Catches India in the Crossfire of US-China Trade War
February 20265-50% tariffs on 1,460 products hit Indian exporters with .6B at stake. Combined with US 18% duties, Indian manufacturers face a shrinking map of viable export destinations.
Mapping Trump's Deterrence Failures: A Pattern Analysis
February 2026Four days to back down from Denmark. Zero hesitation to capture Venezuela's president. Energy leverage, nuclear status, and strategic partnerships predict which Trump threats materialize and which collapse.
The Orbital Arsenal: Russia's Nuclear ASAT and the New Space Race
February 2026Russia develops indiscriminate space nuclear weapons while China deploys satellite constellations at record pace. The competition for orbital dominance has shifted from Cold War deterrence to active weapons development.
Iran Crisis: 24-Hour Military Intervention Risk
January 2026Capital flight, assassination threats, and airspace closures signal regime instability and imminent US action
Trump's Iran Trade Tariff: Process Created, Not Yet Imposed
February 2026Executive order establishes framework for 25% tariffs on Iran's trading partners. China, India, UAE face exposure. No immediate duties applied.
US Carrier Strike Group Deployed to Middle East
January 2026Trump announces armada moving toward Iran as regional tensions escalate
BlackRock's Fink Warns AI Could Replicate Post-Cold War Inequality Failures
January 2026Why the world's largest asset manager is connecting AI deployment to 30 years of unsustainable capitalism
ESMA's New ESG Communication Rules: What 'Integration' and 'Exclusions' Actually Mean Now
December 2025The EU regulator is closing the definition gap that let fund managers call almost anything "ESG." Here's what changes for asset managers, LPs, and portfolio companies.
China's Export Control Weapon: Which Portfolio Companies Are Exposed
December 2025Silver, tungsten, and rare earth restrictions create hidden exposure across defense, EV, and semiconductor portfolios
25% AI Chip Tariff and Venezuela Oil Pivot
25 February 2026Trump administration enacts dual economic policy shifts with immediate supply chain and energy implications
EU Designates IRGC: Narrative Theater, Not War Prep
January 2026Why the terrorist label creates political noise without operational signal
Macron's Coalition of the Willing
January 2026European defense spending enters new phase as France commits 100% military support to Ukraine
Analysis
The Phone Call That Split the Gulf: How Trump Reignited the Saudi-UAE Rivalry
February 2026A single conversation between Trump and the UAE's MBZ accelerated a pre-existing rivalry that now stretches across Yemen, Sudan, OPEC, and the future of the Middle East.
The Three-Company Problem
December 2025Three companies control 88% of the enterprise AI market. That concentration creates vendor risk, pricing uncertainty, and regulatory exposure that most due diligence processes are not designed to capture.
Russian Hybrid Operations in Europe
February 2022146 documented incidents across 30+ countries since February 2022: sabotage, arson, assassination plots, and influence operations targeting critical infrastructure and political systems.
The Monroe Doctrine Is Back: What Trump's Territorial Ambitions Mean
December 2025From Greenland to the Panama Canal to Canada, the administration is invoking 19th-century expansionism. Here's the strategic logic and the investor implications.
Trump Backs Down on Greenland Military Threats, Announces NATO Framework
22 January 2026At Davos on January 21, Trump ruled out military force and announced a framework deal with NATO on Greenland and Arctic security. Here's what changed and what it means for transatlantic investors.
The Future of USDT: What a Tether Collapse Would Mean for Everyone Else
December 2025Tether holds $181 billion in assets and has survived every crisis since 2014. But the question for investors is not whether USDT is solvent today. It is what happens to the broader financial ecosystem if confidence breaks.
Argentina's Milei Reforms: Real or Theater?
December 2025Inflation is down 85%. FDI is negative. What investors need to know about Latin America's most radical economic experiment.
Trump Tariffs: What Mid-Market PE Needs to Know Now
January 2026Your portfolio's China exposure is 3.8x higher than you think. Here's what the data shows and what questions to ask.
Vietnam as China+1: What the Consensus Gets Wrong
December 2025The China+1 narrative assumes Vietnam offers clean diversification. The data tells a different story.
Test Article (Sample)
February 2026Test production pipeline with sample data
Counterpoint
The Real Cost of "Move Fast" DD
February 2026The hidden costs of speed-first due diligence.
The Real Cost of "Move Fast"
February 2026The Real Cost of "Move Fast"
Why Compliance Theater Is Worse Than Nothing
February 2026Why Compliance Theater Is Worse Than Nothing
Why More Data Makes Diligence Worse
March 2023Comprehensive reports create false confidence while providers optimize for liability protection over diagnostic clarity.
The Dangerous Myth of 'No Adverse Media'
October 2021Standard adverse media screening has coverage gaps, definitional ambiguities, and process shortcuts that turn 'no adverse media' into a false sense of security.
Control Risks' Grinch Analysis Misreads Moscow's Response Calculus
November 2024Why Russia's maritime constraint is situational, not structural, and where the operational risk actually sits
Due Diligence Doesn't Prevent Bad Deals (Here's What Does)
March 202580% of advisory fees are contingent on deal completion. The people paid to find problems are paid more when they don't.
The 5 Countries Everyone's Bullish On That Will Disappoint
September 2025Consensus favorites for manufacturing diversification, nearshoring, and emerging market growth. The data says otherwise.
Why Your Consultancy's Market Report Is Useless for Investment Decisions
October 201971% of PE deals miss margin projections. The firms doing the commercial DD are telling you the CDD is not working.
Case Study
How We'd Approach a UAE Family Office Partner
November 2024A GP calls about co-investing with a Dubai family office. The principals seem credible. The capital is real. Here's why that's not enough.
How We'd Assess Uzbekistan in 72 Hours
September 2017A PE client calls about a manufacturing target with Central Asian exposure. Here's exactly how we'd approach it.
Methodology
Our Source Hierarchy: Primary vs. Secondary vs. Open Source
25 February 2026Every DD report cites sources. Very few tell you what those sources are actually worth.
How We Calculate Confidence Levels
January 2015The intelligence community solved this problem in 1964. Commercial due diligence still hasn't adopted it.